Press Releases
LaRocco Poll—Risch Unknown and Disliked
July 1, 2008
BOISE, IDAHO — A poll of 500 likely Idaho voters shows Idaho’s political landscape has shifted. That leaves Lt. Gov. Jim Risch vulnerable to an aggressive campaign, such as former Congressman Larry LaRocco’s.
The LaRocco for U.S. Senate campaign is delighted by this poll—taken five months ahead of the election—that shows Risch, who was hand-picked by Idaho’s political elite, can be beaten.
Several key points emerge from the poll.
First: George Bush has lost Idaho
After seven years of good will, 54% of respondents now hold an unfavorable view of President Bush. Bush had not sunk below 50% in favorability before May.
Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain both earned favorable marks (some from the same respondents): Obama was 50% favorable and McCain was 54% favorable.
Second: Risch is neither well-known nor well-liked
For a man who was governor two years ago and lieutenant governor for five years, Risch is not well-known.
A surprising percentage of respondents either didn’t know or had no opinion of Jim Risch (33%) or Larry LaRocco (52%)—but then, LaRocco wasn’t Idaho’s governor in 2006.
Of people who knew Risch, only 44% held a favorable view of him. That compares to 29% who viewed LaRocco favorably. More respondents viewed Risch unfavorably (23%) than LaRocco (20%).
(The question pollsters asked for favorability ratings was: Now I’d like to ask you about some public figures. For each, please tell me whether you have a very favorable, a somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person but do not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of the person, just say so and we’ll move on.)
Third: Risch has low job approval
The people who knew Risch weren’t impressed with his work.
For his job as lieutenant governor, 49% said he did excellent or good while 31% rated him as just fair or poor.
For his job as governor, only 42% rated Risch as excellent or good while 38% rated him as just fair or poor.
Fourth: Voters choose LaRocco when they know the issues
In a head-to-head contest, voters chose Risch over LaRocco: Risch had 43%, LaRocco 28%, Rammell 6%, Other 6%, and Undecided 18%.
(Question: if the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were independent Rex Rammell, Republican Jim Risch and Democrat Larry LaRocco, for whom would you vote, or are undecided?)
But LaRocco took the lead when respondents heard about Risch and LaRocco’s stances the issues and were asked to vote again: LaRocco had 40%, Risch 37%, Rammell 5%, Other 5% and Undecideds dropped to 13%.
Some issues that voters heard about included LaRocco’s stance on NAFTA (he voted against it), his energy plan, his support of the new G.I. Bill and LaRocco’s “Working for the Senate” campaign, where he takes jobs for a day across Idaho.
Risch’s 20 percent sales tax increase from his time as governor, his stance on health care (he supports McCain’s health care proposal) and his lack of action on the importation of radioactive waste from Kuwait concerned likely voters.
[NOTE: This poll went into the field a full week after Risch started airing television ads touting his $200 million property tax cut (actually a tax shift paid for by raising sales taxes 20%).]
Fifth: Pocket book issues top the list of important issues to Idahoans
Jobs and the economy, 21%
Energy independence and gas prices, 17%
War in Iraq, 12%
Health care and prescription drugs, 9%
Social Security and retirement security, 7%
Taxes, 7%
Education, 5%
Homeland security and terrorism, 4%
Illegal immigration, 2%
Ethics and political corruption, 2%
Budget deficits, 2%
Farming and agriculture, 2%
Mortgage foreclosures, 1%
Other, 3%
The poll was conducted by Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners, May 20 to May 25. By a random digit dial sample, made by professional callers, Lake identified 500 likely Idaho voters. The margin of error is 4.5%.
